What is the risk of one person with COVID-19 attending your event? This COVID risk assessment tool breaks it down state by state, county by county.
A COVID risk assessment tool developed by Georgia Tech and Applied Bioinformatics Laboratory is a helpful gauge of how likely COVID could impact an event based on its size and location.
The risk level is the estimated chance (0-100 percent) that at least 1 COVID-19 positive individual will be present at an event, given the size of the event and the state or county in which it is taking place. Users can modify event size from 10 to 10,000. Also important is what is known as “ascertainment bias.” Based on seroprevalence data, the model assumes there are 10 times more cases than are being reported (a 10:1 ascertainment bias). In locations with more testing availability, that number would be different and could be set accordingly. Right now, a 20 percent ascertainment bias is probably applicable to much of the US, according to the web site.
The map makes an assumption of uniformity and independence, assuming that every person who comes to the event is exactly as likely to be infected as anyone else in the county (uniformity) and that their chances of being infected are independent from each other (independence). The risk calculations only tell how likely it is that at least one person at any event of a given size is infectious—not how likely it is that an attendee would be exposed or infected with COVID-19 at the event. Of course, there are numerous other variables so it is important to view the model with this in mind.
The tool also offers real-time COVID data by state and a tutorial for users.