The global travel and tourism industry is poised for sustained growth in the coming years, fueled by rising consumer interest and increasing access to international travel opportunities.
According to a report by the World Economic Forum and Kearney, the industry will reach 30 billion tourist trips annually by 2034.
The report also highlights that travel and tourism will contribute approximately $16 trillion to global GDP by 2034, representing more than 11 percent of the world economy. Currently, the sector accounts for just under 10 percent of global GDP and supports over 330 million jobs worldwide, but it is growing 1.5 times faster than the global economy.
Although the Covid-19 pandemic caused global travel and tourism GDP to fall from $10.3 trillion in 2019 to $5.3 trillion in 2020, the industry has since shown a robust recovery. While the report outlines several possible future scenarios, the most likely projection is that total travel spending will reach $14 trillion by 2034, culminating in a $16 trillion GDP contribution.
Certain segments are experiencing especially rapid growth. Sports tourism is expected to reach $1.7 trillion by 2032, while ecotourism and wellness are projected to grow with double digits through to 2032.
Travel Hot Spots
Major tourist destinations such as the United States, France, Mexico, Spain, Italy and Brazil will remain the largest contributing nations to the travel and tourism economy. Other countries like Japan, Turkey, Egypt, and Germany are also in the higher echelons of the list.
However, the fastest growing tourism economies for the years ahead are nearly all in Asia—India and China together are projected to constitute more than 25 percent of all outbound international travel by 2030. As a whole, Asia’s direct travel and tourism GDP contribution is expected to surpass 7 percent across the region by 2034.
Countries such as Sri Lanka, Thailand and Indonesia are all set for considerable growth, while outside of Asia, the UAE and Saudi Arabia stand out as high growth markets.
Risks vs. Opportunities
With the opportunities, though, come risks. To support the boom in travel and tourism, the industry will need to expand significantly—requiring an estimated 7 million new hotel rooms, 15 million additional flights annually and investment in infrastructure capable of supporting 30 billion trips globally.
Another challenge is the sector’s climate footprint. Travel and tourism currently contributes to 8 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions, a figure that could escalate to 15 percent by 2034 without intervention. And waste generated by tourists is projected to hit 205 million tons annually, equivalent to 7 percent of the world’s solid waste.
The report calls for countries and destinations to keep their visitor infrastructure sustainable on the long term through smart planning and environmental regeneration.
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