New no-fly zones in the Middle East are leaving gaping holes in airline schedules, efficiency and safety.
No-fly zones—holes in the airspace where flights should be—usually occur where there’s a risk to safety from events on the ground. Case in point: the escalating conflict in the Middle East. This newest crisis on the ground is also negatively impacting events 35,000 feet in the air, costing commercial airlines time and money as they reroute flights.
In the last few years going back to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the disruptions of war and conflict have become a fact of life for the airlines and they’ve adapted. But can they keep up with ever-changing geopolitics, not to mention natural disasters like the recent volcanic eruption in Bali that come out of the blue?
Detours and Dangers
As live air-tracking maps like websites like FlightRadar24 show, there are now gaping holes over Israel, Iran, Iraq and Ukraine, with most air traffic bottlenecked into narrow channels around the troubled areas.
There is still some international air travel over Russia, CNN reports, but it mainly consists of Chinese carriers like Air China, Xiamen Air and Cathay Pacific. Russian airspace bordering Ukraine has been closed to all commercial airlines since the invasion began in February 2022, forcing China’s European routes over the Baltic Sea area, near St. Petersburg.
Even airspace that remains open must be viewed with caution, lest unexpected weather push a passing plane over the line. Pilots therefore have to stay far enough away to both avoid close calls and be able to land somewhere should an onboard emergency arise.
Other potential pitfalls: the danger of GPS jamming or spoofing around combat zones, putting satellite navigation systems at risk of being tricked into showing false locations. In addition, forcing aircraft into smaller spaces creates more work for already-taxed air traffic controllers.
The High Price of Ground Warfare
Besides the costs of time and peace of mind, flight disruptions cost a lot of money. The current conflict between Iran and Israel is forcing carriers to add two hours to nonstop flights from London to Hong Kong. That means using up considerably more fuel, even for fuel-efficient long-haul aircraft.
Airlines also may see increased costs for crew time, new charges for changes to overfly airspace and lost revenue from delays and cancellations—losses that cannot be recouped when passengers have booked weeks or months in advance.
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