Geopolitical tensions represent the top safety threat for U.S. travelers in the coming year, says Global Guardian’s 2026 Risk Report.
Based in McLean, VA, security firm Global Guardian started rating political stability as a tourism risk factor in 2022, in response to rising geopolitical tensions.
The Risk Map draws on geopolitical drivers and regional challenges to provide country-specific security ratings across a range of factors, including crime, health, natural disasters, infrastructure, political stability, civil unrest and terrorism.
Key conflicts and risks highlighted in this year’s report include: escalating tensions between India and Pakistan following an April 2025 terror attack; the ongoing war in Ukraine; the increasing adoption of “mano dura” (hardline) security models across Latin America to combat public insecurity; and a rise in terrorism in the Western world, partly fueled by the Gaza conflict and its ideological convergence. The map also notes declining conflict and terrorism in Afghanistan and Syria, while pointing to increasing risks in parts of Europe and the Persian Gulf.
“Our Risk Map provides leaders with a macro view of emerging threats and shifting risks worldwide. It’s a vital planning tool—but the fact remains that even in countries rated low risk, organizations must stay prepared,” said Global Guardian CEO Dale Buckner in a media release.
Buckner also noted that more geopolitical and geoeconomic changes have occurred in the last three years than in the previous 30, to the point that they have now become the top travel safety concern.
In addition to the 2026 Risk Map, Global Guardian’s new analytical tool, the Global Guardian Terror Index (GGTI), provides a snapshot of the current terrorism threat landscape. By assigning ratings from Low to Extreme based on both the immediate propensity for terrorism and its trajectory, the GGTI provides decision-makers with sharper insight into how geopolitical instability and terrorism may impact operations and travel security worldwide.
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