A record number of Americans had been expected to fly during Thanksgiving, but a 43-day government shutdown dampened demand for one of the year’s busiest travel seasons.
Many skittish travelers rethought their plans as cancellations and delays mounted while the shutdown wore on. But now that the travel days are upon us, travel volume appears to be a mixed bag, Reuters reports.
While some airlines reported mixed estimates for Thanksgiving travelers, the numbers show passengers are avoiding busy U.S. airports, while bus and train bookings rose 17% year-over-year, Wanderu reports.
About 6 million U.S. travelers were expected to take domestic flights during the holiday, up 2% from 2024, according to AAA. But bookings slowed after the shutdown hit the one-month mark. The steepest drop came during the final week when the Federal Aviation Administration ordered flight cuts at 40 major airports.
As of Nov. 24, flight bookings for the 5-day holiday period were down 4.48% from a year ago, according to data from aviation analytics firm Cirium. Bookings were up 1.56% on Oct. 31, but have steadily declined.
At Newark Airport on Monday, FAA Administrator Bryan Bedford said at a press conference that travelers should be confident but prepare for busy airports and potential weather issues.
Southwest Airlines said the shutdown and economic uncertainty made it difficult to forecast Thanksgiving demand. The airline did not provide estimates, but analytics firm OAG said Southwest added 200,000 more domestic seats year-on-year for the holiday period. Delta Air Lines said it expects to fly roughly 6.5 million customers, similar to last year.
Some airlines still anticipate record travel as consumers regain confidence after the shutdown and book flights at the last minute.
American Airlines said it will operate nearly 81,000 flights during the same period, up from 77,000 in 2024. United Airlines said it expects about 6.6 million customers over a 13-day period, the most passengers the airline has ever flown during a Thanksgiving holiday. The airline added 9% more international seats year-on-year.
The FAA said it anticipates that this Thanksgiving holiday travel period will be the busiest in 15 years, with the most passengers expected on Tuesday, Nov. 25.
Still, many airline travelers plan to avoid major hubs. For instance, Atlanta’s Hartsfield-Jackson, the busiest U.S. airport, will see 7.6% fewer Thanksgiving travelers, while Houston and Denver airports are reporting lower volume as well.
Amtrak said it expects record train travelers this year after 1.2 million Americans booked trips with the railroad last year. Bus and train marketplace Wanderu has seen demand rise 17% year-over-year, led by bus bookings.
The effects of the shutdown may drag into Christmas. During the shutdown, bookings were trending about 0.42% lower year-over-year, according to an early analysis by Cirium.
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