Update: Melissa is now a category 5 storm and still crawling toward Jamaica. Norman Manley International Airport (NMIA) and Sangster International Airport (SIA) are both closed until further notice.
Update 11pm Friday, Oct. 24: Expecting a direct hit early next week, VisitJamaica has set up a Travel Alerts page to advise travelers arriving to or leaving the island.
For the moment, Melissa is staying where she is. Still a tropical storm, Melissa remains nearly stationary in the central Caribbean as of Oct. 24, 2025, with forecasters monitoring its slow but potentially dangerous development.
Currently positioned approximately 185 miles southeast of Kingston, Jamaica and 260 miles southwest of Port-au-Prince, Haiti, the late-season system is maintaining maximum sustained winds of 45 mph while moving east-southeast at a mere 1 mph.
However, the National Hurricane Center forecasts that Melissa will undergo rapid intensification within the next 24 hours, transitioning to hurricane status by Oct. 25 and potentially reaching major hurricane strength by Oct. 26. Current projections indicate Melissa could develop into a formidable Category 4 system early next week, with rapid intensification defined as wind speed increases of at least 35 mph within a 24-hour period.
Jamaica faces a significant threat as meteorological models show increasing consensus regarding the potential direct impact. Andrew Hazelton from the University of Miami’s Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies noted on the social platform X that overnight hurricane models are indicating significant impacts for the island. Historical data shows Jamaica experiences a direct hurricane hit approximately once every 10-11 years, with the last major impact being Hurricane Gilbert in 1988.
Jamaica Prepares as Melissa Approaches
As the storm approaches, Jamaica’s tourism industry is activating comprehensive preparedness systems. Minister of Tourism, Hon. Edmund Bartlett, has emphasized the nation’s proven track record in crisis management.
“Our ability to respond swiftly and effectively to crises is what continues to set Jamaica apart as a world-class destination,” Bartlett said in a press statement. “Resilience has long been at the heart of Jamaica’s tourism success. We have learnt from experience that preparedness is the foundation of recovery.”
The Jamaica Ministry of Tourism is deploying its Tourism Emergency Operations Center (TEOC) effective Oct. 24, which will coordinate with the National Emergency Operations Center, Office of Disaster Preparedness and Emergency Management, and the Meteorological Service of Jamaica to ensure visitor safety and sector continuity.
“This coordinated response reflects Jamaica’s investment in robust disaster risk management systems across all levels of our tourism industry,” Minister Bartlett continued in the press statement. “From our hoteliers and attraction operators to our transportation providers and dedicated tourism workers, we have established protocols that prioritize safety while maintaining service excellence.”
The primary hazards include catastrophic rainfall, with precipitation models suggesting storm totals exceeding 24 inches and localized amounts potentially surpassing 30 inches across Jamaica.
Southwestern Haiti remains under similar threat, with the Hurricane Center warning of life-threatening flash flooding and numerous landslides through the weekend. Three fatalities have already been reported in Haiti due to the storm’s peripheral effects.
According to CNBC, the neighboring Dominican Republic is experiencing significant infrastructure impacts, with dozens of water supply systems knocked out, affecting nearly a million customers. All public schools across the Dominican Republic were closed on Friday, along with government offices in 12 provinces under alert.
Minister Bartlett noted that tourism stakeholders across the island are implementing their internal preparedness plans, developed through years of experience and training. “By preparing now, we ensure that Jamaica remains strong, safe, resilient and ready to continue operations moving forward. Our tourism stakeholders remain calm, vigilant and united in our efforts to protect both our people and our industry,” he said.
What About Florida & the U.S.?
For Florida and the continental United States, meteorologists currently project minimal impact. AccuWeather’s Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said on CNBC that Melissa is expected to remain well east of Florida, likely moving northeast into the Atlantic. Dr. Ryan Truchelut, chief meteorologist at WeatherTiger, placed the odds of even minimal effects on southeast Florida at about 5 percent.
Precise projections about the storm’s future path and intensity will vary, as these forecasts can change as new data becomes available.
