Amex GBT’s Air Monitor 2025 expects a price rise slowdown, but also foresees challenges for travel buyers as airlines advance smart revenue management and dynamic pricing.
Airfare price increases will level off globally in 2025, according to Air Monitor 2025 from American Express Global Business Travel (Amex GBT), a leading software and services company for travel, expense, and meetings & events.
While fares on most routes will increase year on year, expected increases are modest—with significant regional variances—continuing a trend that started in 2024.
The Air Monitor, developed by Amex GBT Consulting, is a comprehensive annual forecast of global airfares, industry trends and advice to help businesses optimize their air programs in a rapidly changing aviation landscape. This year’s edition outlines factors shaping prices, including continued growth in global air capacity, and a return to more traditional seasonal patterns in leisure travel.
In a media announcement, Gerardo Tejado, SVP Professional Services, Amex GBT, said: “In 2025, businesses will be faced with a new reality in their air programs, even though price rises are levelling off and capacity has returned, fares remain high. Corporates should expect tough negotiating stances from airlines, particularly as carriers evolve their distribution models. Business travel buyers will need to be strategic—for example, around loyalty and program performance data—to get value in this environment.”
Global Air Price Moves in 2025
The following chart illustrates the expected increases by region for business and economy class fares.
Meanwhile, factors influencing airfares for 2025 include:
- Labor costs and shortages: Ongoing labor disputes and pilot shortages, particularly in North America, continue to impact airline operational costs, leading to potential fare increases.
- Fuel costs: While fuel prices have been stable in 2024, geopolitical tensions could still drive fluctuations that affect overall ticket prices.
- Carrier-imposed surcharges: Airlines continue to introduce new surcharges, including environmental surcharges and new GDS fees, further increasing ticket prices.
- Airlines deploying enhanced revenue management technologies and pricing strategies.
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